Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 659 games through Nov 11
5%
Air Force
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Air Force and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Air Force
Air Force grabs 43.4% of its misses (98th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (44th percentile).
Edge: Air Force
Pace clash: Air Force runs, Duke slows it down
Air Force averages 80.9 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (77th percentile); Air Force secures 67.1% of opponents' misses (39th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.9 inches taller than Air Force's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 345 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Air Force | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 43rd | 51st |
| Rebounding | 68th | 61st |
| Ball security | 90th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 78th | 94th |
Games between them in 2026–27, then every earlier meeting we have.
Air Force and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.