Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
25%
Xavier
75%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Xavier and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Xavier 61.4%.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Xavier secures 67.0% of opponents' misses (37th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Xavier's bench scores more
Xavier's reserves average 44.7 points per game; Duke's 32.3.
Edge: Xavier
Pace clash: Xavier runs, Duke slows it down
Xavier averages 77.8 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Xavier's 1.35.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Xavier | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 39th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 25th | 59th |
| Ball security | 69th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 70th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Xavier and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.