Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15

West Virginia

94%

Duke

Predicted score: 56–73
Model spread: Duke −17.5
Fair moneyline: +1452 / -1452

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

West VirginiaDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: +15.6+40.4; West Virginia 85th percentile; Duke 100th percentile. Edge Duke.
Offensive efficiency: 112.3129.2; West Virginia 69th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive efficiency: 96.788.7; West Virginia 95th percentile; Duke 100th percentile. Even.
Strength of schedule: +9.6+14.9; West Virginia 80th percentile; Duke 96th percentile. Edge Duke.
Pace: 63.866.5; West Virginia 5th percentile; Duke 34th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 44.5%49.1%; West Virginia 40th percentile; Duke 95th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 33.1%34.7%; West Virginia 36th percentile; Duke 61st percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point rate: 43.0%43.6%; West Virginia 68th percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Even.
Free throw %: 68.3%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 29.9%30.8%; West Virginia 38th percentile; Duke 53rd percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 71.0%67.9%; West Virginia 73rd percentile; Duke 25th percentile. Edge West Virginia.
Turnover rate: 17.0%16.0%; West Virginia 46th percentile; Duke 65th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game: 12.7

Defense

Opponent FG %: 42.0%39.3%; West Virginia 84th percentile; Duke 98th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 34.3%30.6%; West Virginia 37th percentile; Duke 92nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 6.37.3; West Virginia 41st percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 3.0

Roster

Average height: —6′7.3″; West Virginia ; Duke 95th percentile. Even.
Program experience: —1.60 yrs; West Virginia ; Duke 43rd percentile. Even.
Bench points: —20.8; West Virginia ; Duke 45th percentile. Even.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	West Virginia	Duke
Offense	69th	99th
Defense	95th	100th
Shooting	30th	69th
Rebounding	56th	39th
Ball security	46th	65th
Schedule	80th	96th

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2025–26.

West Virginia and Duke did not play each other this season.

Common opponents

How each team fared against the 7 opponents they both played.

West Virginia: 3–4; Average margin +1.9
Duke: 7–1; Average margin +15.8

Results against common opponents
Opponent	West Virginia	Duke
CLEClemson	L67–70neutral	W67–54homeW73–61neutral
KANKansas	W86–75home	W78–66neutral
PITTPittsburgh	W71–49home	W70–54away
STAStanford	W82–77neutral	W80–50away
TCUTCU	L54–60away	W81–58neutral
TTUTexas Tech	L63–70home	L81–82neutral
WAKWake Forest	L66–75home	W90–69home

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents