Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
7%
Wake Forest
93%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Jan 24 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Wake Forest 3% and a 22.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 6%. Duke won 90–69.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Wake Forest and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Wake Forest by 13.2.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Wake Forest secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Wake Forest | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 82nd | 99th |
| Defense | 77th | 100th |
| Shooting | 66th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 32nd | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 88th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Jan 24, 2026· At Duke
DUKEDuke won90–69
Closing line: Wake Forest +19(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 16 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Wake Forest | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | L67–68away | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | W80–73home | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | W85–77homeL62–71neutral | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | W69–68away | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W83–67away | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | L80–88home | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| MICMichigan | L84–85neutral | W68–63neutral |
| NCSTNC State | L57–70awayL78–96home | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L84–87away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| PITTPittsburgh | L76–80away | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | L79–91home | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | W68–63home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | W88–83home | W101–64home |
| TTUTexas Tech | L83–84neutral | L81–82neutral |
| VIRVirginia | L70–75away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | W81–78homeL63–82awayW95–89neutral | W72–58away |