Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
8%
Virginia Tech
92%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Jan 31 (at Virginia Tech), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Virginia Tech 16% and a 11.6-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 15%. Duke won 72–58.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Virginia Tech and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Virginia Tech by 14.9.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech grabs 31.7% of its misses (61st percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Virginia Tech
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Virginia Tech secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 4.2 points per 100 possessions better than Virginia Tech's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Virginia Tech | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 85th | 99th |
| Defense | 81st | 100th |
| Shooting | 65th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 39th | 39th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Schedule | 82nd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Jan 31, 2026· At Virginia Tech
DUKEDuke won72–58
Closing line: Virginia Tech +12.75(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 15 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Virginia Tech | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W72–63home | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | W78–75home | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | W76–66away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L69–92home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W71–65home | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | L71–85away | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | L73–82away | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L82–89away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W89–76home | W100–56away |
| SMUSMU | L76–77away | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | L68–69home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | W76–74away | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | W95–85homeL72–76away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| WAKWake Forest | L78–81awayW82–63homeL89–95neutral | W90–69home |
| W CWestern Carolina | W96–74home | W95–54home |