Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10

26%

Virginia Tech

74%

Duke

Predicted score: 72–82
Model spread: Duke −9.6
Fair moneyline: +291 / -291

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between Virginia Tech and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

Virginia TechDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; Virginia Tech ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; Virginia Tech ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; Virginia Tech ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; Virginia Tech ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 46.173.5; Virginia Tech 1st percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 50.5%48.1%; Virginia Tech 81st percentile; Duke 67th percentile. Edge Virginia Tech.
Three-point %: 41.2%30.1%; Virginia Tech 90th percentile; Duke 31st percentile. Edge Virginia Tech.
Three-point rate: 37.0%40.3%; Virginia Tech 29th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 74.1%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 36.9%35.4%; Virginia Tech 84th percentile; Duke 75th percentile. Edge Virginia Tech.
Defensive rebound %: 61.2%67.7%; Virginia Tech 10th percentile; Duke 43rd percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 21.0%18.0%; Virginia Tech 18th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Assists per game: 14.7

Defense

Opponent FG %: 42.4%36.3%; Virginia Tech 45th percentile; Duke 84th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 26.5%26.4%; Virginia Tech 79th percentile; Duke 80th percentile. Even.
Steals per game: 8.011.0; Virginia Tech 55th percentile; Duke 87th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 3.0

Roster

Average height: 6′4.9″6′7.6″; Virginia Tech 24th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.77 yrs1.89 yrs; Virginia Tech 81st percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Even.
Bench points: 18.332.3; Virginia Tech 18th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Virginia Tech	Duke
Shooting	81st	52nd
Rebounding	47th	59th
Ball security	18th	45th
Size & experience	52nd	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27.

Virginia Tech and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents