Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
84%
Virginia
16%
Wright State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Virginia 84% and a 11.4-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 94%. Virginia won 82–73.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Virginia and Wright State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Virginia is the stronger team on paper
Virginia outscored opponents by 26.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Wright State by 2.4.
Edge: Virginia
Second chances for Wright State
Wright State grabs 31.8% of its misses (63rd percentile); Virginia secures 66.2% of opponents' misses (8th percentile).
Edge: Wright State
Virginia's offense should find room
Virginia's offense ranks in the 93rd percentile; Wright State's defense in the 49th percentile.
Edge: Virginia
Virginia faced the tougher schedule
Virginia's average opponent was 14.1 points per 100 possessions better than Wright State's.
Edge: Virginia
Virginia has the size advantage
Virginia's minutes-weighted height is 1.3 inches taller than Wright State's.
Edge: Virginia
Wright State has more continuity
Wright State's minutes go to players averaging 1.75 seasons in the program; Virginia's 1.04.
Edge: Wright State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Virginia | Wright State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 93rd | 68th |
| Defense | 95th | 49th |
| Shooting | 69th | 81st |
| Rebounding | 43rd | 58th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 34th | 36th |
| Schedule | 83rd | 38th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
VIRVirginia won82–73
Closing line: Virginia -18.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Virginia | Wright State |
|---|---|---|
| BUTButler | L73–80neutral | L69–94away |
| CALCalifornia | W84–60home | L67–77away |
| MARMarshall | W104–78home | L74–76away |