Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
40%
Villanova
60%
Utah State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Villanova 40% and a 3.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 45%. Utah State won 86–76.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Villanova and Utah State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Villanova
Villanova grabs 33.6% of its misses (82nd percentile); Utah State secures 66.1% of opponents' misses (7th percentile).
Edge: Villanova
Strength on strength: Utah State's offense vs. Villanova's defense
Utah State scores 124.3 per 100 possessions (95th percentile); Villanova allows 100.3 (90th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Villanova's offense vs. Utah State's defense
Villanova scores 119.9 per 100 possessions (87th percentile); Utah State allows 100.6 (89th percentile).
Even matchup
Villanova's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Villanova makes 35.7% of its threes (77th percentile); Utah State's opponents hit 34.4% (35th percentile defensively).
Edge: Villanova
Utah State's bench scores more
Utah State's reserves average 30.1 points per game; Villanova's 18.3.
Edge: Utah State
Utah State is the stronger team on paper
Utah State outscored opponents by 23.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Villanova by 19.6.
Edge: Utah State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Villanova | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 87th | 95th |
| Defense | 90th | 89th |
| Shooting | 51st | 67th |
| Rebounding | 67th | 32nd |
| Ball security | 82nd | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 25th | 51st |
| Schedule | 86th | 79th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
USUUtah State won86–76
Closing line: Villanova +1.75(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.