Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
56%
UMBC
44%
Howard
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 17 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave UMBC 56% and a 1.6-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 52%. Howard won 86–83.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between UMBC and Howard, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Howard has more continuity
Howard's minutes go to players averaging 2.11 seasons in the program; UMBC's 1.48.
Edge: Howard
UMBC has the size advantage
UMBC's minutes-weighted height is 1.0 inches taller than Howard's.
Edge: UMBC
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | UMBC | Howard |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 49th | 33rd |
| Defense | 42nd | 62nd |
| Shooting | 86th | 63rd |
| Rebounding | 43rd | 51st |
| Ball security | 94th | 15th |
| Size & experience | 26th | 43rd |
| Schedule | 0th | 1st |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 17, 2026First Four· Neutral site
HOWHoward won86–83
Closing line: UMBC +1.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | UMBC | Howard |
|---|---|---|
| COPCoppin State | W93–59away | L0–0awayW90–70homeW72–53away |
| DELDelaware State | W71–57home | W84–58homeW91–59away |
| MORMorgan State | W81–79away | L77–78homeW84–59away |