Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
25%
UConn
75%
Michigan
Consensus closing line for their title game on Apr 6 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave UConn 25% and a 7.8-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 27%. Michigan won 69–63.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between UConn and Michigan, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Michigan's offense vs. UConn's defense
Michigan scores 130.6 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); UConn allows 93.0 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: UConn's offense vs. Michigan's defense
UConn scores 123.2 per 100 possessions (93rd percentile); Michigan allows 88.8 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Michigan is the stronger team on paper
Michigan outscored opponents by 41.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; UConn by 30.3.
Edge: Michigan
Second chances for UConn
UConn grabs 32.4% of its misses (69th percentile); Michigan secures 64.0% of opponents' misses (1st percentile).
Edge: UConn
Pace clash: Michigan runs, UConn slows it down
Michigan averages 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes; UConn 63.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Michigan's bench scores more
Michigan's reserves average 28.8 points per game; UConn's 17.6.
Edge: Michigan
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | UConn | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 93rd | 99th |
| Defense | 97th | 100th |
| Shooting | 63rd | 89th |
| Rebounding | 49th | 7th |
| Ball security | 46th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 85th | 67th |
| Schedule | 95th | 100th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Apr 6, 2026Championship· Neutral site
MICMichigan won69–63
Closing line: UConn +6.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 6 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | UConn | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| ARIArizona | L67–71home | W91–73neutral |
| DUKEDuke | W73–72neutral | L63–68neutral |
| ILLIllinois | W71–62neutralW74–61neutral | W84–70away |
| MSUMichigan State | W67–63neutral | W83–71awayW90–80home |
| UCLAUCLA | W73–57neutral | W86–56home |
| VILVillanova | W75–67homeW73–63away | W89–61home |