Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
63%
UCLA
37%
UCF
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave UCLA 63% and a 3.9-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 68%. UCLA won 75–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between UCLA and UCF, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for UCF
UCF grabs 33.9% of its misses (85th percentile); UCLA secures 66.8% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: UCF
Strength on strength: UCF's offense vs. UCLA's defense
UCF scores 120.0 per 100 possessions (88th percentile); UCLA allows 101.3 (87th percentile).
Even matchup
UCLA is the stronger team on paper
UCLA outscored opponents by 21.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; UCF by 14.1.
Edge: UCLA
Pace clash: UCF runs, UCLA slows it down
UCF averages 69.9 possessions per 40 minutes; UCLA 64.9. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
UCLA has more continuity
UCLA's minutes go to players averaging 1.67 seasons in the program; UCF's 1.01.
Edge: UCLA
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | UCLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 92nd | 88th |
| Defense | 87th | 69th |
| Shooting | 86th | 70th |
| Rebounding | 34th | 75th |
| Ball security | 94th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 49th | 40th |
| Schedule | 94th | 90th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
UCLAUCLA won75–71
Closing line: UCLA -5.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | UCLA | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| ARIArizona | L65–69neutral | L77–84homeL59–81neutral |
| ARIArizona State | W90–77home | W79–76home |