Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
37%
UCF
63%
UCLA
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave UCF 37% and a 3.9-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 32%. UCLA won 75–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between UCF and UCLA, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for UCF
UCF grabs 33.9% of its misses (85th percentile); UCLA secures 66.8% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: UCF
Strength on strength: UCF's offense vs. UCLA's defense
UCF scores 120.0 per 100 possessions (88th percentile); UCLA allows 101.3 (87th percentile).
Even matchup
UCLA is the stronger team on paper
UCLA outscored opponents by 21.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; UCF by 14.1.
Edge: UCLA
Pace clash: UCF runs, UCLA slows it down
UCF averages 69.9 possessions per 40 minutes; UCLA 64.9. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
UCLA has more continuity
UCLA's minutes go to players averaging 1.67 seasons in the program; UCF's 1.01.
Edge: UCLA
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | UCF | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 88th | 92nd |
| Defense | 69th | 87th |
| Shooting | 70th | 86th |
| Rebounding | 75th | 34th |
| Ball security | 65th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 40th | 49th |
| Schedule | 90th | 94th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
UCLAUCLA won75–71
Closing line: UCF +5.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | UCF | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| ARIArizona | L77–84homeL59–81neutral | L65–69neutral |
| ARIArizona State | W79–76home | W90–77home |