Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
17%
Troy
83%
Nebraska
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Troy 17% and a 10.9-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 11%. Nebraska won 76–47.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Troy and Nebraska, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Nebraska is the stronger team on paper
Nebraska outscored opponents by 28.1 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Troy by 1.6.
Edge: Nebraska
Nebraska faced the tougher schedule
Nebraska's average opponent was 16.7 points per 100 possessions better than Troy's.
Edge: Nebraska
Nebraska's offense should find room
Nebraska's offense ranks in the 88th percentile; Troy's defense in the 51st percentile.
Edge: Nebraska
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Troy | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 62nd | 88th |
| Defense | 51st | 98th |
| Shooting | 50th | 77th |
| Rebounding | 46th | 43rd |
| Ball security | 46th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 61st | 68th |
| Schedule | 36th | 91st |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
NEBNebraska won76–47
Closing line: Troy +13.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Troy | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| USCUSC | L106–107away | W82–67away |
| WESWest Georgia | L89–93home | W86–53home |