Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
27%
Texas
73%
Purdue
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 26 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Texas 27% and a 7.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 26%. Purdue won 79–77.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Texas and Purdue, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Purdue is the stronger team on paper
Purdue outscored opponents by 32.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Texas by 19.8.
Edge: Purdue
Strength on strength: Texas's offense vs. Purdue's defense
Texas scores 124.8 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Purdue allows 100.0 (90th percentile).
Even matchup
Purdue's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Purdue makes 38.3% of its threes (96th percentile); Texas's opponents hit 34.8% (30th percentile defensively).
Edge: Purdue
Purdue has more continuity
Purdue's minutes go to players averaging 2.83 seasons in the program; Texas's 1.55.
Edge: Purdue
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Texas | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 96th | 100th |
| Defense | 74th | 90th |
| Shooting | 79th | 89th |
| Rebounding | 62nd | 52nd |
| Ball security | 65th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 50th | 69th |
| Schedule | 92nd | 99th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 26, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
PURPurdue won79–77
Closing line: Texas +8(covered)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Texas | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| ALAAlabama | W92–88away | W87–80away |
| AUBAuburn | L82–88away | W88–60home |