Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Tennessee State
94%
Iowa State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Tennessee State 6% and a 18.2-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 5%. Iowa State won 108–74.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Tennessee State and Iowa State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Iowa State is the stronger team on paper
Iowa State outscored opponents by 33.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Tennessee State by -2.0.
Edge: Iowa State
Iowa State faced the tougher schedule
Iowa State's average opponent was 20.0 points per 100 possessions better than Tennessee State's.
Edge: Iowa State
Iowa State's offense should find room
Iowa State's offense ranks in the 96th percentile; Tennessee State's defense in the 40th percentile.
Edge: Iowa State
Tennessee State is safer at the line late
Tennessee State shoots 76.3% on free throws; Iowa State 67.5%.
Edge: Tennessee State
Iowa State has the size advantage
Iowa State's minutes-weighted height is 1.1 inches taller than Tennessee State's.
Edge: Iowa State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Tennessee State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 53rd | 96th |
| Defense | 40th | 98th |
| Shooting | 61st | 66th |
| Rebounding | 76th | 70th |
| Ball security | 46th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 35th | 68th |
| Schedule | 18th | 89th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
ISUIowa State won108–74
Closing line: Tennessee State +25.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Tennessee State | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| E IEastern Illinois | L70–74awayW77–68home | W78–53home |
| TENTennessee | L60–89away | L62–76neutral |