Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
14%
Tennessee State
86%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Tennessee State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Pace clash: Tennessee State runs, Duke slows it down
Tennessee State averages 87.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Tennessee State secures 66.7% of opponents' misses (33rd percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.2 inches taller than Tennessee State's.
Edge: Duke
Tennessee State's bench scores more
Tennessee State's reserves average 45.2 points per game; Duke's 32.3.
Edge: Tennessee State
Second chances for Tennessee State
Tennessee State grabs 36.3% of its misses (81st percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (43rd percentile).
Edge: Tennessee State
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Tennessee State's 1.38.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Tennessee State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 52nd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 57th | 59th |
| Ball security | 57th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 46th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Tennessee State and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.