Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
23%
Tennessee
77%
Michigan
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 29 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Tennessee 23% and a 8.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 26%. Michigan won 95–62.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Tennessee and Michigan, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Tennessee
Tennessee grabs 37.4% of its misses (100th percentile); Michigan secures 64.0% of opponents' misses (1st percentile).
Edge: Tennessee
Michigan is the stronger team on paper
Michigan outscored opponents by 41.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Tennessee by 27.8.
Edge: Michigan
Strength on strength: Michigan's offense vs. Tennessee's defense
Michigan scores 130.6 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Tennessee allows 94.1 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Tennessee's offense vs. Michigan's defense
Tennessee scores 121.8 per 100 possessions (91st percentile); Michigan allows 88.8 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Tennessee | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 91st | 99th |
| Defense | 97th | 100th |
| Shooting | 43rd | 89th |
| Rebounding | 52nd | 7th |
| Ball security | 46th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 49th | 67th |
| Schedule | 98th | 100th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 29, 2026Elite Eight· Neutral site
MICMichigan won95–62
Closing line: Tennessee +8.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Tennessee | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| ALAAlabama | W79–73awayL69–71home | W90–77neutral |
| AUBAuburn | W77–69homeW72–62neutral | W102–72neutral |
| ILLIllinois | L62–75home | W84–70away |
| RUTRutgers | W85–60neutral | W101–60home |