Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
31%
Tennessee
69%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Tennessee and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Tennessee secures 60.6% of opponents' misses (9th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Tennessee is safer at the line late
Tennessee shoots 84.6% on free throws; Duke 71.2%.
Edge: Tennessee
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.7 inches taller than Tennessee's.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Tennessee's 1.22.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Tennessee | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 64th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 8th | 59th |
| Ball security | 45th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 50th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Tennessee and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.