Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
10%
TCU
90%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 21 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave TCU 10% and a 14.9-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 16%. Duke won 81–58.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between TCU and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; TCU by 16.9.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. TCU's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); TCU allows 99.3 (92nd percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for TCU
TCU grabs 34.4% of its misses (90th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: TCU
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.8 inches taller than TCU's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | TCU | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 80th | 99th |
| Defense | 92nd | 100th |
| Shooting | 34th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 84th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 13th | 69th |
| Schedule | 87th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 21, 2026Round of 32· Neutral site
DUKEDuke won81–58
Closing line: TCU +12.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 5 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | TCU | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| FLOFlorida | W84–80neutral | W67–66home |
| KANKansas | L100–104awayL73–78neutral | W78–66neutral |
| MICMichigan | L63–67home | W68–63neutral |
| NOTNotre Dame | L85–87home | W100–56away |
| TTUTexas Tech | W73–65away | L81–82neutral |