Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
5%
Syracuse
95%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Feb 16 (at Duke), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Syracuse 2% and a 24.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 6%. Duke won 101–64.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Syracuse and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Syracuse by 10.8.
Edge: Duke
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 72.9% on free throws; Syracuse 64.8%.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Syracuse secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Syracuse | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 75th | 99th |
| Defense | 80th | 100th |
| Shooting | 36th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 28th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 84th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Feb 16, 2026· At Duke
DUKEDuke won101–64
Closing line: Syracuse +20.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 15 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Syracuse | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | L73–81away | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | W107–100home | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L61–64home | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | W94–86home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W82–72away | W85–79home |
| KANKansas | L60–71neutral | W78–66neutral |
| LOULouisville | L62–77away | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | L68–88away | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L77–87awayL64–77home | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W86–72home | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | W83–72awayL69–71home | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | W79–78homeL69–86neutral | W82–75home |
| VIRVirginia | L59–72away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L74–76home | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | L83–88away | W90–69home |