Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Stanford
94%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Jan 17 (at Stanford), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Stanford 13% and a 12.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 21%. Duke won 80–50.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Stanford and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Stanford by 13.3.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Stanford
Stanford grabs 33.4% of its misses (81st percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Stanford
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 4.5 points per 100 possessions better than Stanford's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Stanford | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 81st | 99th |
| Defense | 78th | 100th |
| Shooting | 51st | 69th |
| Rebounding | 78th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 81st | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Jan 17, 2026· At Stanford
DUKEDuke won80–50
Closing line: Stanford +11.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 14 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Stanford | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W70–64away | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | L66–78homeL66–72away | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L64–66home | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L80–88away | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W95–72home | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | W80–76home | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | W85–84away | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | W95–90home | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | L40–47homeW86–78away | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | W75–67homeL63–64neutral | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | W95–75home | W82–75home |
| VIRVirginia | L55–70away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | W69–68away | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | L63–68away | W90–69home |