Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
5%
St. Thomas-Minnesota
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between St. Thomas-Minnesota and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; St. Thomas-Minnesota by 5.9.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 20.6 points per 100 possessions better than St. Thomas-Minnesota's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; St. Thomas-Minnesota's defense in the 62nd percentile.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | St. Thomas-Minnesota | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 72nd | 99th |
| Defense | 62nd | 100th |
| Shooting | 64th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 46th | 39th |
| Ball security | 94th | 65th |
| Schedule | 25th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
St. Thomas-Minnesota and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | St. Thomas-Minnesota | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| ARMYArmy | W83–76home | W114–59away |