Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10

13%

St. Thomas-Minnesota

87%

Duke

Predicted score: 67–84
Model spread: Duke −16.4
Fair moneyline: +666 / -666

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between St. Thomas-Minnesota and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

St. Thomas-MinnesotaDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; St. Thomas-Minnesota ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; St. Thomas-Minnesota ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; St. Thomas-Minnesota ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; St. Thomas-Minnesota ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 66.773.5; St. Thomas-Minnesota 16th percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 42.3%48.1%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 27th percentile; Duke 67th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 33.3%30.1%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 50th percentile; Duke 31st percentile. Edge St. Thomas-Minnesota.
Three-point rate: 51.9%40.3%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 92nd percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge St. Thomas-Minnesota.
Free throw %

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 21.1%35.4%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 4th percentile; Duke 75th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 66.7%67.7%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 33rd percentile; Duke 43rd percentile. Edge Duke.
Turnover rate: 15.0%18.0%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 77th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge St. Thomas-Minnesota.
Assists per game

Defense

Opponent FG %: 42.2%36.3%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 47th percentile; Duke 84th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 29.0%26.4%; St. Thomas-Minnesota 65th percentile; Duke 80th percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 4.311.0; St. Thomas-Minnesota 5th percentile; Duke 87th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 2.7

Roster

Average height: 6′4.8″6′7.6″; St. Thomas-Minnesota 22nd percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 2.40 yrs1.89 yrs; St. Thomas-Minnesota 96th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge St. Thomas-Minnesota.
Bench points: 15.032.3; St. Thomas-Minnesota 8th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	St. Thomas-Minnesota	Duke
Shooting	58th	52nd
Rebounding	18th	59th
Ball security	77th	45th
Size & experience	59th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27.

St. Thomas-Minnesota and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents