Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
21%
St. John's
79%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 27 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave St. John's 21% and a 9.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 31%. Duke won 80–75.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between St. John's and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; St. John's by 27.7.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. St. John's's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); St. John's allows 94.0 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: St. John's's offense vs. Duke's defense
St. John's scores 121.6 per 100 possessions (90th percentile); Duke allows 88.7 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for St. John's
St. John's grabs 33.6% of its misses (82nd percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: St. John's
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.1 inches taller than St. John's's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | St. John's | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 90th | 99th |
| Defense | 97th | 100th |
| Shooting | 47th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 58th | 39th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 44th | 69th |
| Schedule | 93rd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 27, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
DUKEDuke won80–75
Closing line: St. John's +6.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | St. John's | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| KANKansas | W67–65neutral | W78–66neutral |
| UCUConn | W81–72homeL40–72awayW72–52home | L72–73neutral |