Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10

31%

St. John's

69%

Duke

Predicted score: 72–79
Model spread: Duke −7.2
Fair moneyline: +222 / -222

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between St. John's and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

St. John'sDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; St. John's ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; St. John's ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; St. John's ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; St. John's ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 72.373.5; St. John's 64th percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 48.8%48.1%; St. John's 72nd percentile; Duke 67th percentile. Even.
Three-point %: 39.6%30.1%; St. John's 84th percentile; Duke 31st percentile. Edge St. John's.
Three-point rate: 37.2%40.3%; St. John's 30th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 75.5%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 30.8%35.4%; St. John's 45th percentile; Duke 75th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 78.0%67.7%; St. John's 95th percentile; Duke 43rd percentile. Edge St. John's.
Turnover rate: 12.0%18.0%; St. John's 94th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge St. John's.
Assists per game: 18.5

Defense

Opponent FG %: 41.8%36.3%; St. John's 49th percentile; Duke 84th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 36.7%26.4%; St. John's 16th percentile; Duke 80th percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 11.511.0; St. John's 91st percentile; Duke 87th percentile. Even.
Blocks per game: 3.0

Roster

Average height: 6′6.8″6′7.6″; St. John's 93rd percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Even.
Program experience: 1.54 yrs1.89 yrs; St. John's 62nd percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 32.832.3; St. John's 72nd percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Even.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	St. John's	Duke
Shooting	78th	52nd
Rebounding	70th	59th
Ball security	94th	45th
Size & experience	78th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27.

St. John's and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents