Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
32%
South Florida
68%
Louisville
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave South Florida 32% and a 5.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 30%. Louisville won 83–79.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between South Florida and Louisville, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Louisville's offense vs. South Florida's defense
Louisville scores 124.1 per 100 possessions (95th percentile); South Florida allows 100.4 (89th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: South Florida's offense vs. Louisville's defense
South Florida scores 118.8 per 100 possessions (85th percentile); Louisville allows 96.7 (95th percentile).
Even matchup
Louisville is the stronger team on paper
Louisville outscored opponents by 27.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; South Florida by 18.4.
Edge: Louisville
Second chances for South Florida
South Florida grabs 36.6% of its misses (99th percentile); Louisville secures 69.4% of opponents' misses (49th percentile).
Edge: South Florida
Louisville's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Louisville makes 36.0% of its threes (83rd percentile); South Florida's opponents hit 34.4% (35th percentile defensively).
Edge: Louisville
Louisville faced the tougher schedule
Louisville's average opponent was 8.9 points per 100 possessions better than South Florida's.
Edge: Louisville
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | South Florida | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 85th | 95th |
| Defense | 89th | 95th |
| Shooting | 43rd | 84th |
| Rebounding | 57th | 41st |
| Ball security | 82nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 13th | 42nd |
| Schedule | 71st | 91st |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
LOULouisville won83–79
Closing line: South Florida +3.75(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | South Florida | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| MEMMemphis | W87–66homeW96–89away | W99–73home |