Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10

24%

South Florida

76%

Duke

Predicted score: 74–84
Model spread: Duke −10.2
Fair moneyline: +312 / -312

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

What decides it

The biggest statistical gaps between South Florida and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

South FloridaDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: ——; South Florida ; Duke . Even.
Offensive efficiency: ——; South Florida ; Duke . Even.
Defensive efficiency: ——; South Florida ; Duke . Even.
Strength of schedule: ——; South Florida ; Duke . Even.
Pace: 71.573.5; South Florida 57th percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 49.3%48.1%; South Florida 75th percentile; Duke 67th percentile. Even.
Three-point %: 39.1%30.1%; South Florida 82nd percentile; Duke 31st percentile. Edge South Florida.
Three-point rate: 34.3%40.3%; South Florida 16th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 75.7%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 30.7%35.4%; South Florida 44th percentile; Duke 75th percentile. Edge Duke.
Defensive rebound %: 67.1%67.7%; South Florida 38th percentile; Duke 43rd percentile. Even.
Turnover rate: 10.0%18.0%; South Florida 99th percentile; Duke 45th percentile. Edge South Florida.
Assists per game: 15.5

Defense

Opponent FG %: 42.9%36.3%; South Florida 40th percentile; Duke 84th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 34.5%26.4%; South Florida 28th percentile; Duke 80th percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 9.511.0; South Florida 76th percentile; Duke 87th percentile. Edge Duke.
Blocks per game: 4.5

Roster

Average height: 6′5.3″6′7.6″; South Florida 40th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Edge Duke.
Program experience: 1.10 yrs1.89 yrs; South Florida 13th percentile; Duke 88th percentile. Edge Duke.
Bench points: 16.532.3; South Florida 11th percentile; Duke 71st percentile. Edge Duke.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	South Florida	Duke
Shooting	79th	52nd
Rebounding	41st	59th
Ball security	99th	45th
Size & experience	27th	93rd

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2026–27.

South Florida and Duke did not play each other this season.

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents