Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
2%
Siena
98%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Siena 2% and a 23.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 3%. Duke won 71–65.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Siena and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Siena by -0.7.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 23.6 points per 100 possessions better than Siena's.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.6 inches taller than Siena's.
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Siena's defense in the 56th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Duke runs, Siena slows it down
Duke averages 66.5 possessions per 40 minutes; Siena 61.8. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Siena | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 48th | 99th |
| Defense | 56th | 100th |
| Shooting | 53rd | 69th |
| Rebounding | 34th | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 36th | 69th |
| Schedule | 11th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
DUKEDuke won71–65
Closing line: Siena +28(covered)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Siena | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| NIANiagara | W83–54homeW82–79away | W100–42home |