Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
8%
Seton Hall
92%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Seton Hall and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Seton Hall by 16.8.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. Seton Hall's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Seton Hall allows 94.4 (96th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Seton Hall
Seton Hall grabs 34.9% of its misses (94th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Seton Hall
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 5.3 points per 100 possessions better than Seton Hall's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Seton Hall | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 63rd | 99th |
| Defense | 96th | 100th |
| Shooting | 25th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 57th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 80th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Seton Hall and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Seton Hall | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| NCSTNC State | W85–74neutral | W93–64away |
| SJUSt. John's | L60–65awayL65–72homeL68–78away | W80–75neutral |
| UCUConn | L64–69homeL67–71away | L72–73neutral |