Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
44%
Santa Clara
56%
Kentucky
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Santa Clara 44% and a 1.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 43%. Kentucky won 89–84.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Santa Clara and Kentucky, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Santa Clara
Santa Clara grabs 36.5% of its misses (99th percentile); Kentucky secures 68.1% of opponents' misses (28th percentile).
Edge: Santa Clara
Strength on strength: Santa Clara's offense vs. Kentucky's defense
Santa Clara scores 123.1 per 100 possessions (93rd percentile); Kentucky allows 98.3 (93rd percentile).
Even matchup
Santa Clara has more continuity
Santa Clara's minutes go to players averaging 2.53 seasons in the program; Kentucky's 1.42.
Edge: Santa Clara
Kentucky faced the tougher schedule
Kentucky's average opponent was 8.3 points per 100 possessions better than Santa Clara's.
Edge: Kentucky
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Santa Clara | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 93rd | 90th |
| Defense | 79th | 93rd |
| Shooting | 67th | 60th |
| Rebounding | 66th | 42nd |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 81st | 56th |
| Schedule | 78th | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
UKKentucky won89–84
Closing line: Santa Clara +3.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Santa Clara | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| GONGonzaga | L77–89awayL86–94homeL68–79neutral | L59–94home |