Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
23%
San Diego State
77%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between San Diego State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. San Diego State's ball security
San Diego State turns it over on 23.0% of possessions (7th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (87th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); San Diego State secures 65.5% of opponents' misses (26th percentile).
Edge: Duke
San Diego State is safer at the line late
San Diego State shoots 78.5% on free throws; Duke 71.2%.
Edge: San Diego State
Duke's bench scores more
Duke's reserves average 32.3 points per game; San Diego State's 21.5.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.6 inches taller than San Diego State's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | San Diego State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 84th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 27th | 59th |
| Ball security | 7th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 62nd | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
San Diego State and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.