Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
59%
Saint Mary's
41%
Texas A&M
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Saint Mary's 59% and a 2.6-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 56%. Texas A&M won 63–50.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Saint Mary's and Texas A&M, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Texas A&M's offense vs. Saint Mary's's defense
Texas A&M scores 119.7 per 100 possessions (87th percentile); Saint Mary's allows 96.1 (96th percentile).
Even matchup
Texas A&M's hands vs. Saint Mary's's ball security
Saint Mary's turns it over on 18.0% of possessions (28th percentile); Texas A&M averages 8.1 steals (88th percentile).
Edge: Texas A&M
Pace clash: Texas A&M runs, Saint Mary's slows it down
Texas A&M averages 69.4 possessions per 40 minutes; Saint Mary's 61.7. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Texas A&M's bench scores more
Texas A&M's reserves average 35.1 points per game; Saint Mary's's 20.9.
Edge: Texas A&M
Saint Mary's is the stronger team on paper
Saint Mary's outscored opponents by 24.3 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Texas A&M by 17.9.
Edge: Saint Mary's
Saint Mary's has more continuity
Saint Mary's's minutes go to players averaging 2.23 seasons in the program; Texas A&M's 1.01.
Edge: Saint Mary's
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Saint Mary's | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 89th | 87th |
| Defense | 96th | 85th |
| Shooting | 88th | 67th |
| Rebounding | 55th | 42nd |
| Ball security | 28th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 87th | 12th |
| Schedule | 76th | 83rd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
A&MTexas A&M won63–50
Closing line: Saint Mary's -2.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Saint Mary's | Texas A&M |
|---|---|---|
| VANVanderbilt | L71–96neutral | L69–82away |