Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
55%
Saint Louis
45%
Georgia
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Saint Louis 55% and a 1.5-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 44%. Saint Louis won 102–77.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Saint Louis and Georgia, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Georgia
Georgia grabs 34.3% of its misses (88th percentile); Saint Louis secures 67.0% of opponents' misses (13th percentile).
Edge: Georgia
Strength on strength: Georgia's offense vs. Saint Louis's defense
Georgia scores 124.4 per 100 possessions (95th percentile); Saint Louis allows 99.8 (90th percentile).
Even matchup
Georgia faced the tougher schedule
Georgia's average opponent was 7.1 points per 100 possessions better than Saint Louis's.
Edge: Georgia
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Saint Louis | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 92nd | 95th |
| Defense | 90th | 82nd |
| Shooting | 88th | 68th |
| Rebounding | 10th | 45th |
| Ball security | 46th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 34th | 35th |
| Schedule | 71st | 83rd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
SLUSaint Louis won102–77
Closing line: Saint Louis +1.5(covered)
No common opponents this season.