Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Queens
94%
Purdue
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Queens 6% and a 18.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 4%. Purdue won 104–69.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Queens and Purdue, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Purdue is the stronger team on paper
Purdue outscored opponents by 32.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Queens by -2.6.
Edge: Purdue
Purdue's offense should find room
Purdue's offense ranks in the 100th percentile; Queens's defense in the 9th percentile.
Edge: Purdue
Purdue's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Purdue makes 38.3% of its threes (96th percentile); Queens's opponents hit 36.1% (11th percentile defensively).
Edge: Purdue
Purdue faced the tougher schedule
Purdue's average opponent was 21.5 points per 100 possessions better than Queens's.
Edge: Purdue
Second chances for Purdue
Purdue grabs 32.0% of its misses (65th percentile); Queens secures 66.7% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: Purdue
Pace clash: Queens runs, Purdue slows it down
Queens averages 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Purdue 64.3. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Queens | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 80th | 100th |
| Defense | 9th | 90th |
| Shooting | 78th | 89th |
| Rebounding | 30th | 52nd |
| Ball security | 82nd | 94th |
| Size & experience | 65th | 69th |
| Schedule | 33rd | 99th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
PURPurdue won104–69
Closing line: Queens +25.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Queens | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| AUBAuburn | L65–106away | W88–60home |