Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
35%
Purdue
65%
Arizona
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 28 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Purdue 35% and a 4.5-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 30%. Arizona won 79–64.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Purdue and Arizona, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Purdue's offense vs. Arizona's defense
Purdue scores 132.9 per 100 possessions (100th percentile); Arizona allows 88.9 (99th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Arizona's offense vs. Purdue's defense
Arizona scores 126.7 per 100 possessions (98th percentile); Purdue allows 100.0 (90th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Purdue
Purdue grabs 32.0% of its misses (65th percentile); Arizona secures 65.6% of opponents' misses (4th percentile).
Edge: Purdue
Pace clash: Arizona runs, Purdue slows it down
Arizona averages 71.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Purdue 64.3. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Purdue has more continuity
Purdue's minutes go to players averaging 2.83 seasons in the program; Arizona's 1.80.
Edge: Purdue
Arizona is the stronger team on paper
Arizona outscored opponents by 37.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Purdue by 32.8.
Edge: Arizona
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Purdue | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 100th | 98th |
| Defense | 90th | 99th |
| Shooting | 89th | 82nd |
| Rebounding | 52nd | 25th |
| Ball security | 94th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 69th | 74th |
| Schedule | 99th | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 28, 2026Elite Eight· Neutral site
ARIArizona won79–64
Closing line: Purdue +5.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 6 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Purdue | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| ALAAlabama | W87–80away | W96–75neutral |
| AUBAuburn | W88–60home | W97–68home |
| ISUIowa State | L58–81home | W73–57homeW82–80neutral |
| MICMichigan | L80–91homeW80–72neutral | L73–91neutral |
| TTUTexas Tech | W86–56neutral | L75–78home |
| UCLAUCLA | L67–69awayW73–66neutral | W69–65neutral |