Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
5%
Providence
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Providence and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Providence by 12.1.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Providence's offense vs. Duke's defense
Providence scores 121.0 per 100 possessions (89th percentile); Duke allows 88.7 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 30.8% of its misses (53rd percentile); Providence secures 65.9% of opponents' misses (6th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Duke's offense should find room
Duke's offense ranks in the 99th percentile; Providence's defense in the 55th percentile.
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Providence runs, Duke slows it down
Providence averages 71.9 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Providence | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 89th | 99th |
| Defense | 55th | 100th |
| Shooting | 87th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 16th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 84th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Providence and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Providence | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| FLOFlorida | L78–90neutral | W67–66home |
| SJUSt. John's | W77–71awayL69–79homeL72–85neutral | W80–75neutral |
| UCUConn | L98–103homeL81–87away | L72–73neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L101–107neutral | W72–58away |