Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
18%
Providence
82%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Providence and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke's hands vs. Providence's ball security
Providence turns it over on 20.0% of possessions (26th percentile); Duke averages 11.0 steals (87th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Providence
Providence grabs 37.8% of its misses (87th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (43rd percentile).
Edge: Providence
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 2.4 inches taller than Providence's.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Providence's 1.16.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Providence | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 37th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 90th | 59th |
| Ball security | 26th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 29th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Providence and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.