Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
3%
Pittsburgh
97%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Feb 10 (at Pittsburgh), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Pittsburgh 8% and a 16.1-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 10%. Duke won 70–54.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Pittsburgh and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Pittsburgh by 7.3.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh grabs 34.3% of its misses (88th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Pittsburgh
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Pittsburgh | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 73rd | 99th |
| Defense | 68th | 100th |
| Shooting | 26th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 88th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 85th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Feb 10, 2026· At Pittsburgh
DUKEDuke won70–54
Closing line: Pittsburgh +17.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 14 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Pittsburgh | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | L62–65away | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | W72–56away | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L68–73homeL52–63away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L74–75home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W89–66away | W85–79home |
| LOULouisville | L59–100home | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | L72–81homeL88–98neutral | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L65–79away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W73–68home | W100–56away |
| SMUSMU | L67–86home | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | L67–75awayW64–63neutral | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | L72–83homeW71–69away | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | L47–67away | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| WAKWake Forest | W80–76home | W90–69home |