Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
8%
Penn
92%
Illinois
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Penn 8% and a 16.5-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 3%. Illinois won 105–70.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Penn and Illinois, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Illinois is the stronger team on paper
Illinois outscored opponents by 36.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Penn by 0.5.
Edge: Illinois
Illinois faced the tougher schedule
Illinois's average opponent was 14.9 points per 100 possessions better than Penn's.
Edge: Illinois
Second chances for Penn
Penn grabs 31.5% of its misses (59th percentile); Illinois secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: Penn
Illinois is safer at the line late
Illinois shoots 78.0% on free throws; Penn 69.3%.
Edge: Illinois
Pace clash: Penn runs, Illinois slows it down
Penn averages 69.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Illinois 62.9. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Illinois has the size advantage
Illinois's minutes-weighted height is 2.0 inches taller than Penn's.
Edge: Illinois
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Penn | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 46th | 100th |
| Defense | 64th | 94th |
| Shooting | 50th | 74th |
| Rebounding | 57th | 45th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 94th |
| Size & experience | 56th | 63rd |
| Schedule | 61st | 97th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
ILLIllinois won105–70
Closing line: Penn +25.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Penn | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| RUTRutgers | L69–70away | W81–55home |