Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
60%
Ohio State
40%
TCU
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Ohio State 60% and a 2.9-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 59%. TCU won 66–64.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Ohio State and TCU, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for TCU
TCU grabs 34.4% of its misses (90th percentile); Ohio State secures 67.1% of opponents' misses (14th percentile).
Edge: TCU
Strength on strength: Ohio State's offense vs. TCU's defense
Ohio State scores 125.1 per 100 possessions (97th percentile); TCU allows 99.3 (92nd percentile).
Even matchup
Ohio State is the stronger team on paper
Ohio State outscored opponents by 23.3 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; TCU by 16.9.
Edge: Ohio State
TCU's bench scores more
TCU's reserves average 23.9 points per game; Ohio State's 11.9.
Edge: TCU
Ohio State is safer at the line late
Ohio State shoots 77.9% on free throws; TCU 70.4%.
Edge: Ohio State
Ohio State has the size advantage
Ohio State's minutes-weighted height is 1.4 inches taller than TCU's.
Edge: Ohio State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Ohio State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 97th | 80th |
| Defense | 86th | 92nd |
| Shooting | 89th | 34th |
| Rebounding | 15th | 84th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 68th | 13th |
| Schedule | 95th | 87th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
TCUTCU won66–64
Closing line: Ohio State -2.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Ohio State | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| MICMichigan | L62–74awayL61–82homeL67–71neutral | L63–67home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W64–63home | L85–87home |
| WESWest Virginia | W89–88neutral | W60–54home |
| WISWisconsin | L82–92awayW86–69home | W74–63neutral |