Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
4%
Notre Dame
96%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Feb 24 (at Notre Dame), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Notre Dame 9% and a 15.6-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 8%. Duke won 100–56.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Notre Dame and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Notre Dame by 8.3.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Notre Dame | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 76th | 99th |
| Defense | 68th | 100th |
| Shooting | 47th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 66th | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 85th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Feb 24, 2026· At Notre Dame
DUKEDuke won100–56
Closing line: Notre Dame +16.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 16 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Notre Dame | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W68–64homeL69–77away | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | L71–72away | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | L61–76home | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida State | L79–82home | W91–87awayW80–79neutral |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W89–74home | W85–79home |
| KANKansas | L61–71neutral | W78–66neutral |
| LOULouisville | L65–76away | W84–73awayW83–52home |
| NCSTNC State | W96–90home | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L69–91away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| PITTPittsburgh | L68–73away | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | L81–89away | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | W47–40awayL78–86home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | L72–86away | W101–64home |
| TCUTCU | W87–85away | W81–58neutral |
| VIRVirginia | L97–100home | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | L76–89away | W72–58away |