Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
28%
Northern Iowa
72%
St. John's
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Northern Iowa 28% and a 6.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 22%. St. John's won 77–53.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Northern Iowa and St. John's, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
St. John's is the stronger team on paper
St. John's outscored opponents by 27.7 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Northern Iowa by 12.2.
Edge: St. John's
Strength on strength: St. John's's offense vs. Northern Iowa's defense
St. John's scores 121.6 per 100 possessions (90th percentile); Northern Iowa allows 97.5 (94th percentile).
Even matchup
Pace clash: St. John's runs, Northern Iowa slows it down
St. John's averages 69.8 possessions per 40 minutes; Northern Iowa 63.6. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
St. John's faced the tougher schedule
St. John's's average opponent was 10.8 points per 100 possessions better than Northern Iowa's.
Edge: St. John's
Northern Iowa has more continuity
Northern Iowa's minutes go to players averaging 2.29 seasons in the program; St. John's's 1.45.
Edge: Northern Iowa
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Northern Iowa | St. John's |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 56th | 90th |
| Defense | 94th | 97th |
| Shooting | 60th | 47th |
| Rebounding | 47th | 58th |
| Ball security | 94th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 65th | 44th |
| Schedule | 69th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
SJUSt. John's won77–53
Closing line: Northern Iowa +10.5(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.