Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
19%
North Dakota State
81%
Michigan State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave North Dakota State 19% and a 10.2-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 10%. Michigan State won 92–67.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between North Dakota State and Michigan State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Michigan State is the stronger team on paper
Michigan State outscored opponents by 29.5 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; North Dakota State by 4.4.
Edge: Michigan State
Michigan State faced the tougher schedule
Michigan State's average opponent was 21.9 points per 100 possessions better than North Dakota State's.
Edge: Michigan State
Michigan State has the size advantage
Michigan State's minutes-weighted height is 2.5 inches taller than North Dakota State's.
Edge: Michigan State
Michigan State has more continuity
Michigan State's minutes go to players averaging 2.56 seasons in the program; North Dakota State's 2.01.
Edge: Michigan State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | North Dakota State | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 64th | 92nd |
| Defense | 65th | 97th |
| Shooting | 70th | 86th |
| Rebounding | 78th | 72nd |
| Ball security | 65th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 39th | 90th |
| Schedule | 25th | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
MSUMichigan State won92–67
Closing line: North Dakota State +16.5(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.