Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
57%
Nebraska
43%
Iowa
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 26 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Nebraska 57% and a 2.1-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 57%. Iowa won 77–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Nebraska and Iowa, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Iowa's offense vs. Nebraska's defense
Iowa scores 124.9 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Nebraska allows 92.0 (98th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Nebraska's offense vs. Iowa's defense
Nebraska scores 120.0 per 100 possessions (88th percentile); Iowa allows 99.6 (91st percentile).
Even matchup
Nebraska has more continuity
Nebraska's minutes go to players averaging 2.46 seasons in the program; Iowa's 1.14.
Edge: Nebraska
Pace clash: Nebraska runs, Iowa slows it down
Nebraska averages 66.2 possessions per 40 minutes; Iowa 60.8. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Nebraska | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 88th | 96th |
| Defense | 98th | 91st |
| Shooting | 77th | 86th |
| Rebounding | 43rd | 56th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 68th | 42nd |
| Schedule | 91st | 92nd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Feb 17, 2026· At Iowa
IOWAIowa won57–52
Closing line: Nebraska +1.25(did not cover)
Mar 8, 2026· At Nebraska
NEBNebraska won84–75
How each team fared against the 16 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Nebraska | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| ILLIllinois | W83–80awayL69–78home | L59–71neutralL69–75home |
| INDIndiana | W83–77away | W74–57away |
| MARMaryland | W74–61home | W83–64homeL70–77awayW75–64neutral |
| MICMichigan | L72–75away | L68–71home |
| MSUMichigan State | W58–56home | L52–71away |
| MINMinnesota | W76–57away | L67–70away |
| NORNorthwestern | W77–58awayW68–49home | W76–70home |
| OSUOhio State | W72–69away | W74–57homeL69–72neutral |
| OREOregon | W90–55home | W84–66away |
| PENPenn State | W87–64home | L69–71away |
| PURPurdue | L77–80homeL58–74neutral | L72–79awayL57–78home |
| RUTRutgers | W80–68away | W68–62home |
| UCLAUCLA | L52–72away | W74–61home |
| USCUSC | W82–67away | W73–72home |
| WASWashington | W76–66home | W84–74away |
| WISWisconsin | W90–60home | L71–84away |
Closing line: Nebraska -5.75(covered)
Mar 26, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
IOWAIowa won77–71
Closing line: Nebraska -1.5(did not cover)