Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
53%
NC State
47%
Texas
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 17 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave NC State 53% and a 0.9-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 49%. Texas won 68–66.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between NC State and Texas, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
NC State's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
NC State makes 38.8% of its threes (98th percentile); Texas's opponents hit 34.8% (30th percentile defensively).
Edge: NC State
Texas's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Texas makes 35.7% of its threes (77th percentile); NC State's opponents hit 35.5% (18th percentile defensively).
Edge: Texas
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 95th | 96th |
| Defense | 80th | 74th |
| Shooting | 88th | 79th |
| Rebounding | 38th | 62nd |
| Ball security | 94th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 32nd | 50th |
| Schedule | 90th | 92nd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Nov 26, 2025· Neutral site
TEXTexas won102–97
Closing line: NC State -2(did not cover)
Mar 17, 2026First Four· Neutral site
TEX
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | NC State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| AUBAuburn | L73–83away | L82–88away |
| DUKEDuke | L64–93home | L60–75neutral |
| OLEOle Miss | W76–62neutral | W79–68homeL66–76neutral |
| VIRVirginia | L61–76homeL61–90awayL74–81neutral | L69–88home |
Closing line: NC State -0.25(did not cover)