Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
35%
Missouri
65%
Miami (FL)
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Missouri 35% and a 4.5-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 45%. Miami (FL) won 80–66.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Missouri and Miami (FL), quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Miami (FL)
Miami (FL) grabs 33.1% of its misses (79th percentile); Missouri secures 65.7% of opponents' misses (4th percentile).
Edge: Miami (FL)
Strength on strength: Missouri's offense vs. Miami (FL)'s defense
Missouri scores 119.1 per 100 possessions (86th percentile); Miami (FL) allows 100.3 (90th percentile).
Even matchup
Miami (FL)'s hands vs. Missouri's ball security
Missouri turns it over on 18.0% of possessions (28th percentile); Miami (FL) averages 7.8 steals (82nd percentile).
Edge: Miami (FL)
Miami (FL) is the stronger team on paper
Miami (FL) outscored opponents by 21.2 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Missouri by 14.3.
Edge: Miami (FL)
Missouri's bench scores more
Missouri's reserves average 25.9 points per game; Miami (FL)'s 16.9.
Edge: Missouri
Missouri has more continuity
Missouri's minutes go to players averaging 1.88 seasons in the program; Miami (FL)'s 1.00.
Edge: Missouri
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Missouri | Miami (FL) |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 86th | 90th |
| Defense | 75th | 90th |
| Shooting | 60th | 58th |
| Rebounding | 37th | 75th |
| Ball security | 28th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 83rd | 36th |
| Schedule | 82nd | 79th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
MIAMiami (FL) won80–66
Closing line: Missouri +1.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Missouri | Miami (FL) |
|---|---|---|
| BETBethune-Cookman | W82–60home | W101–61home |
| FLOFlorida | W76–74home | L68–82neutral |
| NOTNotre Dame | L71–76away | W81–69away |
| OLEOle Miss | L69–76away | W75–66away |