Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
49%
Michigan State
51%
UConn
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 27 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Michigan State 49% and a 0.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 46%. UConn won 67–63.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Michigan State and UConn, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: UConn's offense vs. Michigan State's defense
UConn scores 123.2 per 100 possessions (93rd percentile); Michigan State allows 93.2 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Michigan State's offense vs. UConn's defense
Michigan State scores 122.7 per 100 possessions (92nd percentile); UConn allows 93.0 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Michigan State | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 92nd | 93rd |
| Defense | 97th | 97th |
| Shooting | 86th | 63rd |
| Rebounding | 72nd | 49th |
| Ball security | 46th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 90th | 85th |
| Schedule | 98th | 95th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 27, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
UCUConn won67–63
Closing line: Michigan State +1.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Michigan State | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| DUKEDuke | L60–66home | W73–72neutral |
| ILLIllinois | W85–82home | W71–62neutralW74–61neutral |
| MICMichigan | L71–83homeL80–90away | L63–69neutral |
| UCLAUCLA | W82–59homeL84–88neutral | W73–57neutral |