Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
39%
Michigan State
61%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Nov 10 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Michigan State 39% and a 4.1-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 27%. Michigan State won 79–73.
The biggest statistical gaps between Michigan State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Michigan State secures 59.6% of opponents' misses (6th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Michigan State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 64th | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 18th | 59th |
| Ball security | 45th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 93rd | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Nov 10, 2026· Neutral site
MSUMichigan State won79–73
Closing line: Michigan State +7(covered)
No common opponents this season.