Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
48%
Michigan
52%
UConn
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Nov 6 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Michigan 48% and a 0.8-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 28%. UConn won 85–77.
The biggest statistical gaps between Michigan and UConn, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for UConn
UConn grabs 33.9% of its misses (67th percentile); Michigan secures 61.0% of opponents' misses (9th percentile).
Edge: UConn
Second chances for Michigan
Michigan grabs 37.7% of its misses (87th percentile); UConn secures 66.7% of opponents' misses (33rd percentile).
Edge: Michigan
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Michigan | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 40th | 59th |
| Rebounding | 48th | 50th |
| Ball security | 69th | 69th |
| Size & experience | 81st | 85th |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Nov 6, 2026· Neutral site
UCUConn won85–77
Closing line: Michigan +7.5(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.