Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
44%
Miami (OH)
56%
SMU
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 18 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Miami (OH) 44% and a 1.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 77%. Miami (OH) won 89–79.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Miami (OH) and SMU, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
SMU is the stronger team on paper
SMU outscored opponents by 18.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Miami (OH) by 10.0.
Edge: SMU
SMU faced the tougher schedule
SMU's average opponent was 16.1 points per 100 possessions better than Miami (OH)'s.
Edge: SMU
Miami (OH)'s bench scores more
Miami (OH)'s reserves average 27.3 points per game; SMU's 14.8.
Edge: Miami (OH)
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Miami (OH) | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 84th | 93rd |
| Defense | 60th | 75th |
| Shooting | 91st | 85th |
| Rebounding | 20th | 39th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 53rd | 49th |
| Schedule | 35th | 88th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 18, 2026First Four· Neutral site
MOHMiami (OH) won89–79
Closing line: Miami (OH) +7(covered)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Miami (OH) | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| ARPArkansas-Pine Bluff | W111–84home | W106–60home |